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340 Aviation Safety and Security
explosion takes time: Korean flight 007 hit the sea 10 minutes after it was shot down,
and Pan Am 103 crashed into Lockerbie 7 minutes after it exploded. Additional time
would pass between the aircraft’s hitting the ground and the confirmation of a crash, and
further time would be required to notify aviation authorities, who could then contact air
traffic controllers who in turn would notify pilots. In short, 10 minutes is a very optimistic
estimate of the time between the first airborne explosion and any warning to other aircraft.
But would the endangered aircraft actually have 10 minutes? The answer would depend
on how simultaneous the bombings in the series would be. In this connection, it is useful
to consider the major bombings on air/rail systems since 9/11 , all of which claimed many
lives:The table shows that, in four of the six events, there were one or more follow-up bombings.
The total number of such subsequent blasts was 18. With a 10-minute time lag, only one
subsequent bombing - the last one in Mumbai - would not yet have occurred. Moreover,
any sudden measures to depressurize an aircraft - probably the only feasible way to reduce
the danger posed by a bomb explosion - are highly dangerous in their own right. (Loss
of cabin pressure has caused nearly 200 deaths in two jet crashes since 2005.) Many lives
could be lost in the attempts to mitigate a potential explosion, a good fraction of which
would probably occur in response to false alarms.
Under these circumstances, we reach an agonizing conclusion: after an initial on-board
explosion, the least dangerous response might be to do nothing . Most other aircraft in
immediate danger could be beyond help, and rescue efforts could well cost more lives
than they save. As optimization researchers know, even the “optimal” strategy against a
terrible set of constraints can yield an extremely bad result.
How does it all add up for security? We might return to Mr. Crandall, who also
expressed the hope in 1996 that air travelers would one day be able to take their security
for granted. In the shadow of 9/11, few people would contend that we are approaching
that point. Right now, airlines, airports and governments are making plans under the
assumption that the threat of terrorism will persist unabated for many years to come. If
air travelers have any reason to be fearful as they board their flights, it is because of the
risk of terrorism.
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